Analysis of 2026 heatwaves UK
A note on isobar charts linked from this essay: these are screen-shotted from digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk, which is where the Met Office serves historical data. I have chosen the isobar charts from midday of each day discussed, for comparability.
In their projection of a heatwave in 2026, the MetOffice projected a southerly airflow bringing warm air from France and Spain. That implies high pressure over the Mediterranean ridging north across Switzerland towards Germany, and relatively low pressure in the Atlantic over sea areas Trafalgar, Fitzroy, Sole, Fastnet. That's perfectly plausible. But it's significant because, coming over land, this is dry air, and dry air is relatively safe. Moist, humid air, off the sea, is much more dangerous.
So how likely is it that a 45° Celsius heatwave would be dry?
Extreme Heat
WARNING: this is an extremely grim essay. I am not an expert on the topics discussed, just an educated lay person trying to understand. I could well be mistaken in my conclusions.
It's a fortnight since I posted my analysis of the Met Office's mid-century temperature projection, and I've been thinking more about it. Apart from immediate human deaths, what are the other consequences of an 'everyone dies' event?
Helping Gaza
The crisis in Gaza has been ongoing since 1947, if not before. That's (at least) 78 years; a lifetime. More than a lifetime, for people who live under continual oppression and attack.
Why is there a crisis in Gaza? Initially because Zionist terrorists drove Palestinians out from further north in Palestine in a bloodthirsty orgy of ruthless ethnic cleansing. There really is no pretty way to say this. The claim that the truly atrocious treatment of Jews by the Nazis and other regimes in Europe led to the the truly atrocious treatment of the people of Palestine by Zionists may have some explanatory force, but it has no justificatory force: evil may lead to evil, but does not excuse evil.
The 'everyone dies' event comes home
This essay was last updated on 6th August 2026.
On 23rd June, the Meteorological Office published a blog post in which they claimed that 'UK could see 45°C by 2056'. As you'll know, I've blogged before of the issue of excessive heat events in our changing climate. So the fact that they projected temperatures above 35° Celsius without commenting on humidity triggered my attention.
The projected weather map (data from Meteorological Office)
Reasons to be cheerful, part three
I've been pessimistic about the prospects for the people of Gaza. Their enemy has overwhelming force; their current supporters, at an official or military level, almost none.
Israel — or more specifically, Netanyahu — clearly does not want the siege to end, does not want the suffering of the Gazans to end. Netanyahu, I believe, would personally like to adopt the teachings of Samuel and bring about an Endlösung — a final solution — to the Palestinian problem.
But let's count our reasons to be cheerful — about Gaza.